Predicting uptake of a malignant catarrhal fever vaccine by pastoralists in northern Tanzania: Opportunities for improving livelihoods and ecosystem health

Malignant Catarhal Fever (MCF), caused by a virus transmitted from asymptomatic wildebeest, is lethal disease in cattle that threatens livestock-based livelihoods and food security many areas of Africa. Many herd owners reduce transmission risks moving away infection hot-spots, but this imposes considerable economic burdens on their households. The advent partially-protective vaccine for opens up new options prevention. In study pastoral households northern Tanzania, we use stated preference choice modelling to investigate how pastoralists would likely respond the availability such vaccine. We show high probability uptake owners, declining at higher costs. Acceptance increases with more efficaceous vaccines, situations where vaccinated are ear-tagged, delivered through private vets. Through analysis Normalized Density Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, reported MCF incidence over 5 years highest mean interannual varibility vegetative greeness relatively low herds sizes smaller. Trends towards lower rainfall greater landscape-level constraints movement suggest avoidance traditional wildebeest will become challenging demand an increase.